Type of Decision Making Enviroment

.VirtualSalt Introduction to determination do, Part 1 Robert Harris adaptation Date June 9, 2012 Previous versions December 2, 2009, October 17, 2008 July 2, 1998 We both build terminations of varying grandeur each day, so the idea that ending do rat be a rather sophisticated art may at prototypal seem strange. However, studies extradite shown that most people argon over practically poorer at close making than they think. An understanding of what finis making bear upons, to stingher with a few effective techniques, allow for help you ground better conclusivenesss. What is stopping point reservation? Some DefinitionsA good place to start is with virtually bill definitions of last making. 1. closing making is the study of identifying and choosing preferences based on the determine and preferences of the decision overlord. Making a decision implies that there be alternative wefts to be get wordsidered, and in such a case we want not yet to identify as some of these alternatives as viable notwithstanding to drive the one that (1) has the highest probability of success or effectiveness and (2) go rough fits with our terminuss, desires, lifestyle, determine, and so on. The 2 important ideas here are that first, there mustiness(prenominal) be some genuine alternatives to choose from among.Note that Do it or Dont do it does not qualify as a effectuate of alternatives. Only Do this or Do something else sincerely qualfies. Second, every decision must be define in the light of some standard of judgment. This standard unremarkably gets expressed in the form of criteria, which reflect the values and preferences of the decision manufacturer. These values and preferences are often orderd by corporate rules or culture, law, scoop up practices, and so forth. 2. Decision making is the carry out of sufficiently reducing doubt and discredit almost alternatives to allow a reasonable prime(prenominal) to be do from among th em.This definition stresses the development-gathering function of decision making. It should be noted here that uncertainty is reduced rather than eliminated. Very few decisions are do with peremptory certainty be sustain complete knowledge somewhat all the alternatives is seldom possible. Thus, every decision involves a certain amount of risk. If there is no uncertainty, you do not start a decision you have an algorithma set of steps or a recipe that is followed to bring about a fixed result. Kinds of Decisions There are several basic kinds of decisions. 1. Decisions whether.This is the yes/no, every/or decision that must be do before we go a mood with the look ation of an alternative. Should I procure a new TV? Should I travel this summer? Decisions whether are do by weighing reasons pro and con. A simple consortsheet with devil columns (one for Proreasons for, and one with Conreasons against) keister be useful for this kind of decision. It is important to be aware of having do a decision whether, since too often we assume that decision making begins with the credit of alternatives, assuming that the decision to choose one has already been made. . Decisions which. These decisions involve a choice of one or more than alternatives from among a set of possibilities, the choice being based on how well each alternative measures up to a set of predefined criteria. 3. Contingent decisions. These are decisions that have been made tho put on hold until some condition is met. For example, I have decided to buy that car if I usher out get it for the right price I have decided to write that member if I pot work the necessary era for it into my schedule.OR even, Well take the highroad done the valley if we stinkpot control the ridge and if we detect no enemy activity to the north. Most people carry well-nigh a set of already made, possible decisions, just waiting for the right conditions or opportunity to arise. Time, energy, price, availability, opportunity, encouragementall these factors can figure into the necessary conditions that hold to be met before we can act on our decision. Some contingent decisions are unstated or even exist below the knowingness of the decision maker. These are the type that occur when we seize opportunity.We dont walk around thinking, If I see a new laser printer for $38, Ill buy it, but if we happen upon a deal like that and we have been contemplating getting a new printer, the decision is made quickly. Decisions made in sports and state of war are like this. The best contingent and opportunistic decisions are made by the prepared mindone that has thought about criteria and alternatives in the past. 4 . Contingent alternatives. Similar to contingent decisions, contingent alternatives involve two or more choices of action, one of which will be taken when the distinguish trigger occurs.Often this trigger is an event or more knowledge. For example, If tomorrow is mysterious or rainy, we wi ll mount a ground attack through the pass, but if the day is clear, we will launch an air strike to the north. OR, if, after this patch attempt, the leak is under 50 gallons per minute, we will sail to the abode port for a repair. But if the leak is over 50 gpm, we will stay here and order a replacement pump. Decision Making is a Recursive Process A critical factor that decision theorists some clock neglect to emphasize is that in spite of the way the process is presented on paper, decision making is a non li secretive, recursive process.That is, most decisions are made by moving back and forth between the choice of criteria (the feature of speechs we want our choice to meet) and the identification of alternatives (the possibilities we can choose from among). The alternatives forthcoming influence the criteria we apply to them, and similarly the criteria we establish influence the alternatives we will consider. Lets look at an example to clarify this. Suppose someone wants to dec ide, Should I get marry? Notice that this is a decision whether.A linear approach to decision making would be to decide this question by weighing the reasons pro and con (what are the benefits and drawbacks of getting unite) and then to move to the next part of the process, the identification of criteria (supportive, easy going, competent, affectionate, etc. ). Next, we would identify alternatives likely to have these criteria (Kathy, Jennifer, Michelle, Julie, etc. ). lastly we would evaluate each alternative according to the criteria and choose the one that best meets the criteria. We would thus have a scheme like this decision whether select criteria identify alternatives atch criteria to alternatives make choice However, the fact is that our decision whether to get get married may really be a contingent decision. Ill get married if I can find the right person. It will thus be influenced by the identification of alternatives, which we usually think of as a later step in the process. Similarly, suppose we have arrived at the identify alternatives ramification of the process when we discover that Jennifer (one of the girls identified as an alternative) has a wonderful constitution characteristic that we had not even thought of before, but that we now really want to have in a wife.We immediately add that characteristic to our criteria. Thus, the decision making process continues to move back and forth, around and around as it progresses in what will eventually be a linear direction but which in its actual workings is highly recursive. rouge point, then, is that the characteristics of the alternatives we discover will often revise the criteria we have previously identified. The Components of Decision Making The Decision Environment Every decision is made inside a decision environment, which is defined as the collection of selective training, alternatives, values, and preferences available at the time of the decision.An ideal decision environment w ould include all possible information, all of it accurate, and every possible alternative. However, two information and alternatives are forced because the time and effort to gain information or identify alternatives are limited. The time bashfulness simply means that a decision must be made by a certain time. The effort constraint reflects the limits of manpower, money, and priorities. (You wouldnt want to spend three hours and half a tank of bodge trying to find the very best parking place at the mall. Since decisions must be made within this constrained environment, we can guess that the major challenge of decision making is uncertainty, and a major goal of decision analysis is to reduce uncertainty. We can almost never have all information needed to make a decision with certainty, so most decisions involve an undeniable amount of risk. The fact that decisions must be made within a limiting decision environment suggests two things. First, it explains why hindsight is so much more accurate and better at making decisions that foresight.As time passes, the decision environment continues to grow and expand. spic-and-span information and new alternatives appeareven after the decision must be made. Armed with new information after the fact, the hindsighters can many times look back and make a much better decision than the original maker, because the decision environment has continued to expand. The second thing suggested by the decision-within-an-environment idea follows from the above point. Since the decision environment continues to expand as time passes, it is often advisable to put off making a decision until close to the deadline.Information and alternatives continue to grow as time passes, so to have access to the most information and to the best alternatives, do not make the decision too soon. Now, since we are dealing with real life, it is obvious that some alternatives magnate no largeer be available if too much time passes that is a tensity we have to work with, a tension that helps to shape the cutoff date for the decision. Delaying a decision as long as reasonably possible, then, provides three benefits 1. The decision environment will be larger, providing more information.There is also time for more thoughtful and extended analysis. 2. New alternatives might be recognized or created. Version 2. 0 might be released. 3. The decision makers preferences might change. With further thought, wisdom, and maturity, you may decide not to buy car X and instead to buy car Y. And delaying a decision involves several risks 1. As the decision environment continues to grow, the decision maker might pass overwhelmed with too much information and either make a poorer decision or else face decision palsy. 2.Some alternatives might become unavailable because of events occurring during the delay. In a few cases, where the decision was between two alternatives (attack the pass or circle around behind the large rock), both alternatives mig ht become unavailable, leaving the decision maker with nothing. And we have all had the experience of seeing some amazing bargain only to oscillate and find that when we go back to buy the item, it is sold out. 3. In a competitive environment, a faster rival might make the decision and gain advantage.An separate manufacturer might bring a similar reaping to market before you (because that company didnt delay the decision) or the opposing forces might have seized the pass while the other army was let the decision environment grow. The Effects of Quantity on Decision Making Many decision makers have a tendency to seek more information than required to make a good decision. When too much information is sought and conveyed, one or more of several hassles can arise. (1) A delay in the decision occurs because of the time required to obtain and process the extra information.This delay could impair the effectiveness of the decision or solution. (2) Information overload will occur. In this state, so much information is available that decision-making ability actually declines because the information in its entirety can no longer be managed or assessed appropriately. A major problem caused by information overload is leave behindfulness. When too much information is taken into memory, especially in a short period of time, some of the information (often that received early on) will be pushed out.The example is sometimes given over of the man who spent the day at an information-heavy seminar. At the end of the day, he was not only unable to remember the first half of the seminar but he had also forgotten where he parked his car that morning. (3) selective use of the information will occur. That is, the decision maker will choose from among all the information available only those facts which support a conceptualize solution or position. (4) Mental fatigue occurs, which results in slower work or poor quality work. (5) Decision fatigue occurs where the decision maker tires of making decisions.Often the result is fast, careless decisions or even decision paralysisno decisions are made at all. The quantity of information that can be processed by the human mind is limited. Unless information is consciously selected, processing will be biased toward the first part of the information received. After that, the mind tires and begins to ignore concomitant information or forget earlier information. (Have you ever gone shopping for something where you looked at many alternativescars, knives, phones, TVsonly to decide that you liked the first one best? Decision Streams A common misconception about decision making is that decisions are made in isolation from each other you gather information, explore alternatives, and make a choice, without regard to anything that has gone before. The fact is, decisions are made in a context of other decisions. The typical metaphor used to explain this is that of a stream. There is a stream of decisions surrounding a give n decision, many decisions made earlier have led up to this decision and made it both possible and limited. Many other decisions will follow from it.Another way to describe this situation is to say that most decisions involve a choice from a group of preselected alternatives, made available to us from the universe of alternatives by the previous decisions we have made. Previous decisions have activated or made operable certain alternatives and deactivated or made inoperable others. For example, when you decide to go to the park, your decision has been enabled by many previous decisions. You had to decide to live near the park you had to decide to buy a car or submit about bus routes, and so on.And your previous decisions have constrained your subsequent ones you cant decide to go to a park this afternoon if it is three states away. By deciding to live where you do, you have both enabled and disabled a whole series of other decisions. As another example, when you enter a insert to buy a DVD player or TV, you are approach with the preselected alternatives stocked by the store. There may be 200 models available in the universe of models, but you will be choosing from, say, only a dozen. In this case, your decision has been constrained by the decisions made by others about which models to carry.We might say, then, that every decision (1) follows from previous decisions, (2) enables many future decisions, and (3) prevents other future decisions. People who have trouble making decisions are sometimes trapped by the constraining nature of decision making. Every decision you make precludes other decisions, and therefore might be said to cause a loss of freedom. If you decide to marry Terry, you no longer can decide to marry Shawn. However, just as making a decision causes a loss of freedom, it also creates new freedom, new choices and new possibilities. So making a decision is liberating as well as constraining.And a decision left unmade will often result in a dec ision by default or a decision being made for you. It is important to realize that every decision you make affects the decision stream and the collections of alternatives available to you both immediately and in the future. In other words, decisions have far reaching consequences. Go to Introduction to Decision Making, Part 2 Introduction to Decision Making, Part 3 otherwise Tools for originative Thinking and Problem solve Critical Thinking rails Home summon Introduction to Creative Thinking Creative Thinking Techniques Criteria for Evaluating a Creative SolutionIntroduction to Problem Solving Human-Factor Phenomena in Problem Solving Problem Solving Techniques Biases Affecting Information Processing Decision Making Techniques Decision reducing Techniques Difficulties Created by the Videographic Presentation of Information Why Are We So invade? Truths of the Information Age VirtualSalt Home Copyright 1998, 2009, 2012 by Robert Harris How to cite this page w w w . v i r t u a l s a l t . c o m About the author Robert Harris is a writer and educator with more than 25 years of teaching experience at the college and university level. RHarris at virtualsalt. com